Notes from the Scout Mindset by Julia Galef: | Thought experiments | | | ------------------- | -------------------------------------------------------------------- | | Double Standard | Are you judging something by different standards? | | Outsider | How would you decide if it was someone else's situation? | | Conformity | If others had a different opinion, would it affect yours? | | Selective Skeptic | How skeptical would you be if the conclusion was different? | | Status Quo Bias | If the current situation wasn't the status quo, would you choose it? | Confidence Calibration test: https://www.eahongkong.org/calibration Scout Mindset Approaches - **Make a plan:** "suppose I had to apologize, how would I do it" - **Silver lining:** conceding an argument earns credibility - **Focus on different goal:** change what you're proud of to something productive - **Things could be worse:** focus on gratitude | | Soldier Mindset | Scout Mindset | | -------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | **Reasoning** | defensive combat | mapmaking | | **Belief** | "can/must I believe this" | "is this true?" | | **Finding out you're wrong** | suffering defeat | Revising map | | **Seeking evidence** | Defending beliefs | Making map more accurate | | **keywords** | motivated reasoning, rationalizing, denial, self-deception, wishful thinking | Truth-seeking, discovery, objectivity, intellectual honesty | | **Functions** | **Short term benefits:**<br>comfort, self-esteem, morale, persuasion, image, belonging | **Long term benefits:**<br>seeing things clearly and making good judgement calls | | **Signs** | - feeling objective<br>- being smart/knowledgeable | - admit when others were right<br>- welcome personal criticism<br>- prove yourself wrong<br>- precautions against fooling yourself<br>- recognize good critics<br>- noticing your own soldier mindset | | **Confidence** | - overconfident when wrong<br>- not outspoken when uncertain | - accurate assessment and communication of confidence | | **Misconceptions** | - Rational irrationality<br>(Just enough irrationality to achieve goals without impairing judgement too much)<br>- overvalue short term benefits<br>- underestimate self-deception cascades (ex: incels) | - underestimate long term benefits<br>(being right)<br>- overestimate social costs (embarassment of lying to doctor) | | **Claims vs Bets** | - "press secretary claims"<br>- encouraging someone but hesitating to give them a referral | - "board decisions"<br>- skin in the game / personal stakes<br>- making bets on what you believe in | | **Coping mechanisms** | - Excuses: "it wasn't my fault because"<br>- Denial: "This is fine"<br>- Fatalism: "can't do anything about it"<br>- Sour grapes: "Didn't want that anyway"<br>- Sweet lemon: "The problem is actually a blessing" | - Count your blessings<br>- Notice how far you've come<br>- Remember you're doing your best<br>- Remember things tend to work out<br>- You can do better next time | | **Risk** | - Blindly irrational optimism<br>- "you can just do things"<br>- minimize maximum regret | Motivated by knowledge that you're making a smart bet, regardless of the outcome | | **Being Wrong / Paradigm Shift** | - Admitting to being wrong<br>- "this stuff is unpredictable"<br>- chasing the "retreating" army and ignoring warning signs | - Updating your views<br>- lean in to confusion: "what am I missing?" | | **Uncertainty** | - used as an excuse<br>- uncertainty due to ignorance<br> | uncertainty reflects messiness of reality—justify and plan around it | | **Echo Chambers** | - only listen to unreasonable people from the other side <br>- mistake good arguments for bad arguments we're familiar with | - listen to people with opposing views who you find reasonable (intellectual common ground, shared goals)<br>- idealogical turing test: the other side would mistake you for a believer when you explain their view | | **Identity** | - "I believe"<br>- getting annoyed at criticism<br>- defiant/righteous language<br>- gatekeeping<br>- schadenfreude<br>- epithets<br>- having to defend your view | identify as someone who:<br>- follows through<br>- doesn't take cheap shots<br>- doesn't make excuses<br>- etc<br> |